Posts

Showing posts from July, 2012

Quarterly UK House Price Update

Image
Now that Halifax and Nationwide have both published their quarterly house price data, I can update my graph of house prices vs. demographics. Incidentally, as you may have read, the ONS updated their census data too, so that is also reflected here with the data for the population of 40-42 year olds.

I stand by my assertion that it's demographics and population that determine the fundamentals of the economy and, if things pan out as the model is indicating, house prices in real terms are going to keep drifting down until 2015 - 2018. It's important to remember that the prices reported in the press are always going to be nominal, so I expect reported prices to stay fairly constant. Many people will assume that house prices are stable, or possibly even rising slowly, but once converted to real prices, the slow drift downwards will become apparent.

It's also important to remember how slowly the cycle of house price highs and lows moves. From the graph of UK prices (blue line)…