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Showing posts from 2016

And now Japan...

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UPDATE May 2018 - Since writing this post, I've changed my opinion on using technicals to determine entry and exit points.


Japan has just crossed up through the SSTO and 21/89 EMA, so I'm buying the Blackrock Japan Fund.

That's all stock markets except the US now, so I'm about 25% invested in equities now.

All previous purchases are in the green for now, but let's see what happens...

Knowing my luck, everyone will sell in May and I'll be left holding the bag...

My sell signal is if markets drop below their 89w EMA and the SSTO.

UPDATE May 2018

Buying Europe and UK...

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UPDATE May 2018 - Since writing this post, I've changed my opinion on using technicals to determine entry and exit points.


European shares and UK shares (based on the FTSE100 and All-Share index) have both now popped up through the 21-week EMA and SSTO, so I'm buying them.

As before, this means using the following funds:

Blackrock UK Equity Tracker D Acc

Blackrock Continental Europe Equity Tracker D Acc

All that remains is the US, which I believe is over-priced, and Japan, which is still in a bear market. Japan could be on the buy list soon enough though...

Buying Emerging Markets and Pacific ex-Japan...

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UPDATE May 2018 - Since writing this post, I've changed my opinion on using technicals to determine entry and exit points.


OK, so I have to admit I was hoping for some better bargains than this, but I've forced myself to follow my own "rules" - Emerging Markets and Pacific excluding Japan have just crossed up through their 21 week EMAs and SSTOs.

That means I'm buying them.

All other markets (US; UK; Europe; Japan) look expensive to me, although I'm at pains to point out that I have NO IDEA what the future holds. This is purely a rule-following exercise.

Since I approximately follow the Permanent Portfolio (with personal tweaks of adjusting allocations based on long-run price averages and timing of equities and bonds based on long-term moving averages to avoid bear markets and buy into bull markets at the beginning when they are cheap), my current allocation to equities is 27.6% based on long-run price averages.

I break that allocation to equities down as fo…

Hoping for some Stock Market bargains...

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UPDATE May 2018 - Since writing this post, I've changed my opinion on using technicals to determine entry and exit points.


As you might have noticed, the stock market is throwing its toys out of the pram.

For me, and anyone else sitting in cash / out of stocks, this could represent another buying opportunity...

I'll be following my favourite long-term indicators in a test that I haven't yet had the chance to try out. They work well in back-testing, but we all know that the past is no guide to the future.

Here's a link to a chart of the FTSE100 over the past ~20 years. You should see two trend lines on the FTSE index itself, and another chart of two lines below it.

The red line on the FTSE chart is the 21 week EMA (exponential moving average). This is my "short-term" signal line. The green line is the 144 week EMA. This is my "long-term" signal line.

When the FTSE is high and falls through the 21w EMA, I think nothing of it. When it falls below the 1…